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For decades, the prevailing assumption was simple: open borders for goods, capital, and people would steadily raise incomes everywhere. The data mostly supported that. Global trade grew, poverty fell in emerging markets, and the global middle class expanded. The model had critics, but the critics were wrong about the pace of change, if not the direction.

That model is now under real stress, not from a single shock but from a structural shift in how major powers think about economic interdependence.

The geopolitics of trade

Trade was never really just about economics. But for most of the post-Cold War period, the economics were dominant enough that the geopolitics stayed in the background. Countries tolerated trade deficits because the gains from specialisation were visible and the security benefits of integration seemed worth the economic risks.

That calculation has shifted. The US-China relationship has reconfigured how Washington thinks about supply ...

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